For most of matcha's modern history, the constraint on drinking it well was knowledge, not availability. That changed in 2024. The Global Japanese Tea Association has called the current situation the first genuine matcha shortage in its history, and through 2026 it shows little sign of easing. If you have noticed rising prices, "one tin per customer" limits, or your favourite matcha simply going out of stock, this is why.
What is actually in short supply
It helps to be precise: this is not a green tea shortage. It is a shortage of tencha, the shade-grown leaf that is ground into matcha. Over the same period that ceremonial matcha became scarce, Japan's broader green tea exports actually rose. Tencha is a small, specialised, labour-intensive corner of Japanese tea production, and it is the part that cannot keep up.
Why it happened
Four forces arrived at once.
Demand outran supply. Global demand for matcha has grown enormously — by some estimates roughly eightfold in five years — while the plant itself works on a slower clock. A newly planted tea field takes around five years to reach full production, so growers cannot simply switch on more tencha to meet a viral moment.
Fewer farmers. Japan lost tens of thousands of tea farmers to retirement between 2000 and 2020, with the average grower now well above 65. Shade cultivation for tencha is among the most labour-intensive work in tea, and there are fewer hands to do it each year.
Climate pressure. Record heat and irregular rainfall during the early-spring shading periods of 2024 and 2025 hit yields hard, with steep declines reported in the highest grades from regions like Uji. The best tencha depends on precise timing, and the weather has made that timing harder.
The five-year lag. Even where growers are replanting, fields planted today will not produce fully until the end of the decade. Supply cannot respond quickly, no matter the demand.
What it means for prices
Prices have risen sharply at source. Auction figures for tencha in 2025 reached levels well above the previous year and above prior records, and early-2026 signals suggest they are holding there rather than falling back. Industry bodies expect the premium ceremonial segment to stay tight for at least the next couple of years. For anyone buying real, single-origin ceremonial matcha, higher and more volatile prices are the near-term reality.
The fake matcha problem
Scarcity always invites substitution. As genuine ceremonial tencha becomes harder to source, more powder is being sold as "ceremonial matcha" that is nothing of the sort: later-harvest culinary leaf, non-Japanese green tea powder, or unlabelled blends marketed to look the part. During a shortage, the gap between what a label claims and what is in the tin tends to widen.
How to buy real matcha right now
The defences are the same ones that always separated genuine matcha from the rest — they just matter more now. Before you buy, look for:
- A specified origin, down to the prefecture or town (for example Yame, Fukuoka, or Wazuka, Kyoto) — not just "Japan".
- A named cultivar, such as Okumidori or Samidori.
- A clear grade, and a stated harvest season and year.
- A price that reflects the cost of producing what the label claims. Genuinely cheap "ceremonial" matcha in 2026 is a warning sign, not a bargain.
Our guide on how to read a matcha label walks through this in detail, and why matcha is expensive explains what you are actually paying for.
Our approach to the shortage
We would rather be transparent than pretend the shortage does not touch us. We specify origin, cultivar, grade and harvest on every tin because that traceability is exactly what protects you when the market is under strain. Our Ceremonial Matcha from Yame, Fukuoka, and our single-cultivar Okumidori and Samidori from Wazuka, Kyoto, are sourced with that in mind. The shortage is real — but so is the difference between matcha you can trace and matcha you cannot.
